Ko e mahuʻinga fakavahaʻapuleʻanga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 kuo fakahaaʻi ʻa e fetoʻaki ki ʻolunga, makatuʻunga ʻi he ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa kehekehe kau ai ʻa e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakae, Ko e fie maʻu ke liliu ʻa e ivi lanu mata, Ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa ʻi he keli kopa, mo e ongoʻi ʻo e maketi fakapaʻanga. ʻE vakaiʻi ʻe he fakamatala ko ʻeni ʻa e ngaue ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 mo e fakamatala pau mo e ngaahi tefitoʻi meʻa mahuʻinga, ʻoatu ha fakamatala lelei ki he fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025, pea ʻoatu ha ngaahi fokotuʻu ngaue ki he kau palofesinale ʻi he ngaueʻanga.
Vakai fakalukufua ki he totongi fakavahaʻapuleʻanga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 mo e ngaahi tefitoʻi meʻa mahuʻinga
ʻI he 2024, naʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻ $9,000 mo e $10,500 ki he toni. ʻOku ʻoatu ʻi lalo ha fakamatala fakanounou ʻo e ngaue ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he kuata:
ʻUluaki Kuata: ʻI he kamataʻanga ʻo e 2024, naʻe fakafuofua ki he mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa $9,000 ki he $9,500, ʻoku ne fakahaaʻi ʻa e tuai ʻa e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakamamani lahi mo e fie maʻu siʻ.
Kuata hono Ua: Mei ʻEpeleli ki Sune, naʻe toe hiki hake ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ki he vahaʻa ʻ $9,500 mo e $9,800, Driven by a rebound in manufacturing and green energy demand.
Kuata hono tolu: ʻI ʻAokosi, Naʻe laka hake ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa $10,000, ʻi he ofi ʻa e totongi $10,500 ʻi Sepitema, tautautefito koeʻuhi ko e fakautuutu ʻo e fie maʻu ʻo e ivi fakafoʻou mo e hokohoko atu ʻa e bottlenecks ʻo e seini ʻo e maʻuʻanga kolo.
Fakafuofua ki he Kuata Faa: ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,500 mo e $10,500 ʻi he kuata hono faa. ʻI he vaivai ʻa e fie maʻu fakafaʻahitaʻu ʻi he fakaʻosinga ʻo e taʻu, ʻE lava ke hoko ha kiʻi holomui siʻisiʻi.
Fakamatala Fakanounou ʻo e Fakamatala Mahuʻinga:
Ngaahi meʻa mahuʻinga ʻi he mahuʻinga fakavahaʻapuleʻanga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024
Green Energy Transition and Electric Vehicle Demand
Liliu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi: ʻI he 2024, ʻOku fakalahi ʻe he ngaahi fonua ʻi mamani ʻa e ngaahi ʻinivesi ʻi he ivi matangi, Ivi ʻo e laʻaa, mo e fakaleleiʻi ʻo e grid, tupu ai ʻa e fie maʻu lahi ʻo e kopa. Fakatatau ki he International Copper Association, ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe tupu ʻa e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa mei he sekitoa ivi fakafoʻou ʻo laka hake ʻi he 6% taʻu ki he taʻu ʻi he 2024.
Tupulaki vave ʻo e kautaha meʻalele ʻuhila: ʻOku fakafuofua ʻe hiki hake ʻa e fakatau fakamamani lahi ʻo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila 20% ʻi he 2024, ʻoku fie maʻu ʻe ha meʻalele ʻuhila ʻavalisi 80 kilo ʻo e kopa, fakalahi ʻa e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa.
Global Copper Mining Supply Chain Constraints
Ngaahi fonua lalahi ʻoku ngaohi ʻaki ʻa e kopa, hange ko Silei mo Pelu, ʻoku nau fehangahangai mo e ngaahi fakangatangata koeʻuhi ko e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni ki he ʻ, fakatupu ʻa e tupu ʻa e ngaohi ʻo e kopa ke tomui ʻi he fie maʻu. Fakamatala mei he International Copper Study Group (ICSG) ʻoku fakahaaʻi ai ha 1% nounou ʻo e koloa ʻi he 2024, toe hiki hake ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa.
Fakautuutu ʻa e fakamole ki hono ngaohi: Kuo hiki hake ʻa e totongi ʻo e keli kopa mo e fakamaʻa ʻaki ʻa e 10% ʻi he 2024, tautautefito ki ʻAmelika Tonga, ʻa ia ʻoku poupouʻi malohi ai ʻe he fakautuutu ʻo e totongi ʻo e kopa..
Fakaakeake Fakaʻekonomika Fakamamani Lahi mo e Fiemaʻu ʻo e Ngaahi Ngaueʻanga
Ko e fakaakeake fakaʻekonomika fakaemamani lahi ʻi he 2024, tautautefito ki he ngaahi ʻinivesi ʻi Siaina mo ʻInitia, kuo ne ʻomi ha poupou lahi ki he fie maʻu ʻo e kopa. ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe tupu ʻa e sekitoa ngaohiʻanga koloa ʻi Siaina ʻaki ʻa e fakafuofua 4% ʻi he 2024, toe poupouʻi lahi ange ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he ngaahi tuʻunga maʻolunga.
Fakakaukau ʻa e kau ʻinivesitoa mo e fetoʻaki ʻa e maketi fakapaʻanga
ʻI he lotolotonga ʻo e taʻepau fakaʻekonomika fakaemamani lahi, Kuo tohoakiʻi mai ʻe he kopa ha ʻinivesi lahi ko ha koloa maluʻi. Fakamatala mei he London Metal Exchange (LME) ʻoku fakahaaʻi ai ha 15% tupu fakataʻu ʻi he lahi ʻo e fefakatauʻaki ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024. Kuo tokoni ʻa e ongoʻi ʻa e kau ʻinivesitoa ki he fetoʻaki mo e hiki ʻa e totongi.
Fakafuofua ki he Mahuʻinga ʻo e Kopa ki he 2025
Makatuʻunga ʻi he ngaahi fetoʻaki mo e ngaahi meʻa ʻoku ne fakaʻaiʻai ʻa e 2024, ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe kei maʻolunga pe ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025. Koeʻuhi ko e hokohoko atu ʻa e fie maʻu mei he ivi fakafoʻou mo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila, hokohoko atu ʻa e ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga kolo, mo e taʻepau fakasiopolitikale, ʻOku fakafuofua ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,200 mo e $11,800 ki he toni ʻi he 2025. ʻOku ʻoatu ʻi lalo ha fakamatala fakakuata fakaikiiki ki he mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻo makatuʻunga ʻi he 2024 fakamatala:
Fakamatala Fakakuata ki he 2025
ʻUluaki Kuata (Q1): Ko e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻoku fakafuofua ki ai ʻoku ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,200 mo e $10,200 ki he toni, ʻi he toe foki mai ʻa e fie maʻu pea kei siʻisiʻi pe ʻa e koloa, ʻAi ke maʻolunga ange ʻa e totongi.
Kuata hono Ua (Q2): Mo e fie maʻu lahi ange ʻe he maketi ivi fakafoʻou, ʻOku ʻamanaki ke aʻu ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ki he tumutumu ʻo e $10,200 ki he $11,500 ki he toni.
Kuata hono tolu (Q3): Ko e faʻahitaʻu tumutumu ʻo e fie maʻu ʻo e kopa, ʻoku fakafuofua ʻe fetoʻaki ʻa e totongi ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,800 mo e $11,000 ki he toni.
Kuata hono Fa (Q4): Koeʻuhi ko e holo ʻa e fie maʻu ʻi he fakaʻosinga ʻo e taʻu, ʻoku ʻamanaki ke kehekehe ʻa e totongi mei he $10,500 ki he $11,800 ki he toni.
ʻOku makatuʻunga ʻa e fakafuofua ko ʻeni ʻo e totongi ʻi he fakamatala ʻoku ʻiloʻi mo e ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e ngaueʻanga, ʻomi ha maʻuʻanga tokoni maʻa e kau palofesinale ʻi he maketi kopa ki hono fai ʻo e tuʻutuʻuni ʻi he 2025.
ʻAnalaiso ʻo e Ngaahi Moʻoniʻi Meʻa Fakaʻuli ʻo e Forecast
Hokohoko atu ʻa e fie maʻu ʻo e ivi lanu mata mo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila
ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe ʻa e fakalakalaka ʻa e liliu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi. ʻOku ʻamanaki ke tupu ʻa e fakatau atu ʻo e ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila ʻaki ʻa e 15%-20% ʻi he 2025. ʻIkai ngata aí, ʻOku ʻamanaki ke toe lahi ange ʻa e fie maʻu mei he maketi ivi fakafoʻou, poupouʻi ʻa e hiki hake ʻi he fie maʻu ʻo e kopa.
Hokohoko atu ʻa e nounou ʻo e maʻuʻanga kopa
ʻOku taʻofi ʻa e fakalahi ʻo e ngaohi kopa ʻi he ngaahi fonua lalahi hange ko Silei mo Pelu, pea ʻoku ngalingali ʻe ngalingali ʻe holo vave ʻa e ngaahi teke ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa. ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe hono poupouʻi ʻe he tuʻunga ʻo e siʻisiʻi ʻo e koloa ʻa e maʻolunga ange ʻa e mahu.
Ngaahi taʻepau ʻo e tuʻutuʻuni fakasiopolitikale mo e fefakatauʻaki
Ngaahi liliu ʻi he tuʻunga fakasiopolitikale mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni fefakatauʻaki ʻi he 2025 ʻE lava ke ne uesia ʻa e maketi kopa. ʻE uesia lahi ʻa e totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he ngaahi tute hu mai mo e fetoʻaki ʻo e seini maʻuʻanga koloa tupu mei he liliu ʻo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni ʻi he ngaahi fonua lalahi ʻoku nau fakaʻaongaʻi ʻa e koloa.
Tupulaki Fakaʻekonomika mo e Ngaahi Ngaueʻanga Fakamamani Lahi
Fakautuutu ʻa e fie maʻu mei he ngaahi maketi kei tupu hake hange ko Siaina mo ʻInitia ʻi he 2025 ʻE fakalele ia ʻe he toe fakafoki mai ʻo e ngaahi ngaue ki he langa fale, Toe poupou lahi ange mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa fakalahi.
Speculative and Safe-Haven Demand in Financial Markets
Koeʻuhi ko e hokohoko atu ʻa e taʻepau fakaʻekonomika ʻi he 2025, ʻE kei hokohoko atu pe hono tohoakiʻi ʻe he kopa ʻa e tokanga ko ha koloa maluʻi, malava ke ne fakatupu ʻa e fetoʻaki ʻo e totongi.
Ngaahi Fokotuʻu Ngaue maʻa e Kau Palofesinale ʻi he Ngaueʻanga
Puleʻi ʻo e ʻInivenitoli mo e Fakasiʻisiʻi ʻo e Fakatu
ʻOku faleʻi ʻa e ngaahi kautaha ke nau palani lelei ʻa e ngaahi tuʻunga ʻo ʻenau koloa kopa pea lokaʻi ʻa e mahuʻinga kimuʻa ke fakaʻehiʻehi mei he mamafa ʻo e fakamole mei he hiki ʻa e totongi. ʻOku totonu ke nau siofi ofi ʻa e ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa fakasiopolitikale mo e ngaahi tuʻutuʻuni fefakatauʻaki ʻe lava ke ne uesia ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa pea fokotuʻu ha ngaahi founga ke tali ki he tu.
Fenapasi mo e Trends ʻi he Maketi ʻo e Ivi Fakafoʻou
ʻOku totonu ke tokanga lahi ange ʻa e ngaahi pisinisi ʻoku nau fie maʻu ʻa e ngaahi koloa kopa ki he ngaahi liliu ʻi he fiemaʻu ʻi loto Ko e sekitoa ʻo e ivi fakafoʻou, tautautefito ki he ngaahi meʻalele ʻuhila mo e fakalahi ʻo e grid, pea fakatupulaki ʻa e ngaahi founga maketi ʻo fakatatau mo e fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa.
Hedging Operations ʻi he Futures Market
ʻOku ʻomi ʻe he maketi ʻo e kopa ʻi he kahaʻu ʻa e ngaahi meʻangaue ki he maluʻi ʻo e ngaahi fakatuʻutamaki ʻo e. Koeʻuhi ko e volatility maʻolunga ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2025, ʻE lava ke tokoni ʻa hono lokaʻi ʻo e totongi ʻo fakafou ʻi he ngaahi aleapau ki he kahaʻu ki he ngaahi pisinisi ke mapuleʻi ʻa.
Fekumi ki he Ngaahi Fetongi ʻo e Naunau mo e Ngaahi Meʻa Foʻou Fakatekinolosia
ʻE lava ke vakaiʻi ʻe he ngaahi kautaha faʻu koloa ʻe niʻihi ha ngaahi naunau kehe hange ko e aluminium pea fakatahaʻi ʻa e ngaahi meʻa foʻou fakatekinolosia ke fakaleleiʻi ʻa, ʻo fakasiʻisiʻi ai ʻa e fakafalala ki he kopa mo fakasiʻisiʻi ʻa e ngaahi malohi ʻo e hiki ʻa e totongi.
Fakaʻosi
Fakakatoa, totongi ʻo e kopa ʻi he 2024 ʻoku ʻamanaki ke tauhi ʻa e tuʻunga maʻolunga ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e $9,000 mo e $10,500, tefito hono takiekina ʻe he fie maʻu ʻo e ivi lanu mata fakaemamani lahi, ngaahi fakangatangata ʻo e seini ʻo e maʻuʻanga, mo e ngaahi moʻoniʻi meʻa ʻi he maketi fakapa. ʻOku ʻamanaki ʻe hokohoko atu ʻa e ngaue ʻa e totongi kopa ʻi he ngaahi tuʻunga maʻolunga ʻi he 2025, mo ha ngaahi meʻa kehekehe ʻe malava ke $9,500 ki he $11,000. ʻOku totonu ke tokanga taha ʻa e kau palofesinale ki hono tokangaʻi ʻo e koloa, Nofo maʻu ʻi he ngaahi fie maʻu ʻa e maketi ivi fakafoʻou, fakaʻaongaʻi ʻa e ngaahi maketi ʻi he kahaʻu ki he maluʻi ʻo e tuʻunga fakatuʻutamaki, pea fakakaukauʻi ʻa e ngaahi founga fetongi ʻo e naunau ke maʻu ha tali lelei ange ki he maketi.
ʻI hono fakahoko ʻo e ngaahi founga ʻi ʻolunga, ʻE lava ke liliu lelei ange ʻa e kau palofesinale ʻi he sekitoa ʻo e kopa ki he ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e maketi mo puke ʻa e ngaahi faingamalie ʻoku ʻomi ʻe he ngaahi fetoʻaki ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻi he kahaʻu.
